Bookmaker Reviews & Sports News

Archive for November 26th, 2008

The Essex Vase continues with three semi-finals at Romford this evening, with Darell Williams wondering how effective Bubbly Totti will be around the track.
The Leger winner had to work hard on Friday before eventually coming through to win his first round heat, and trainer Ted Soppitt fully expects his charge to improve for his first competitive look at the circuit. Certainly tonight’s race [8.53] should be run to suit him with three front runners potentially ready to set the race up for a stronger finisher. But I for one still have my doubts about his effectiveness at Romford and certainly if he’s [1.6] or [1.7] as seems likely, I’d rather take him on.

Brickfield Dream really shouldn’t be good enough, but then who expected him to win the other night? And at [26.0] he’s certainly worth a throw away wager. His draw outside rails favoring Ullid Amy and inside Bubbly Totti should give him the chance to run his race. Admittedly fellow front runners Saucy Jim (doesn’t stay) and Westmead Tina won’t make it easy, and realistically if you’re taking on ‘Totti’, Westmead Tina is a more obvious pick. Her first round win came via a first look at the track and at [11.5] outright I’ve added her to the ante post portfolio.

Bet of the night is undoubtedly fellow Nick Savva inmate Westmead Pal in the first semi [8.35]. He ran riot in the opening round and can lead fellow railer Bomber Blue, while outside neighbor Droopys Carvalho will edge right. Anything above [2.5] looks fair, but I’m hoping for bigger with Sussex Cup winner ‘Carvalho’ likely to help make the market. The latter was one of my original ante post picks and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t also qualify from a relatively weak heat.

The other semi-final is a minefield [9.09] although I would love to see Vatican Jinky run a repeat of his opening round effort. Included in the long term bets before that race at well over [21.0] on his first start for nearly a year, last year’s third has an excellent chance on that run, but trainer Pat Rosney has already highlighted that he bounced on his second run back in similar circumstances last year and I’m tempted to lay a bit back even at this stage.

The fact it’s an all railers affair certainly doesn’t help, but tentatively I just favor Sherries Boy, whose off the pace style may prove decisive.
The Romford Puppy Cup Final on Friday looks a match to me between Deanridge Ammo and Confident Kermit; with the former by virtue of an inside draw getting the nod. A reproduction of his first round heat would make him a good thing, but ‘Kermit’ was quicker in the semi-final and will be suited by the middle draw. However the presence of inconsistent but classy Droopys Quinta next door must be a worry, and Paul Young’s runner, who is equally at home on or off the pace, can take advantage.
 more

Jeremy Grayson reflects on a dramatic weekend in horseracing with the Scoop6 and Snoopy Loopy making the headlines.
Oh, the irony.

Certain corners of cyberspace resounded with cries of discontent last Friday, as the identity of the six constituent legs of the Tote Scoop6 became known.

Here, it was argued, was the biggest prize in recent – if not all-time – British horseracing gambling history being rendered unattainable by some wilfully obtuse race selections. Four Flat contests from Lingfield (make sure you’re as annoyed when the Summer Plate meeting steals at least two legs of the Scoop6 back from the Flat meetings again next July, gentlemen) and a 0-105 Huntingdon marathon handicap hurdle were selected in preference to any of the races likely to be rich in National Hunt Festival pointers.

You know the rest, of course. No leg of the Scoop6 returned a winner bigger than 15-2, whereas the Betfair Chase – the most grievous omission from the competition to many – returned a winner at 33-1, the biggest-priced victor of any race at the six meetings in Britain and Ireland on Saturday and more than twice the odds of the day’s next biggest.

Happier in hindsight to have had a run for your money without Snoopy Loopy smashing you out of the contest barely 15 minutes into it? Thought so. It would have been interesting to learn how many of the eight sets of individuals and syndicates who shared the jackpot would have picked Peter Bowen’s 10 year-old over Kauto Star or Exotic Dancer had they been required to do so – I’d guess at none or close to none.

With two Listed contests and a 0-100 handicap all gracing Kempton’s well above-par Polytrack card, nobody should automatically expect this Saturday’s Scoop6 to revert to just high-class jumps fare, even with the prize fund down to a comparatively small total. At least there should be enough of a whiff of familiarity about the Kempton action to appease the milquetoasts, with weekend winners Atlantic Story and Duff both likely to reappear.

Back over the sticks, it looks as if Snoopy Loopy’s period of rest may be similarly short with a tilt at the Hennessy a distinct possibility.

You can’t blame Bowen for striking whilst the iron is hot with his Old Vic-gelding. A winner of two bumpers in 2004 and a 25-runner Punchestown Festival novices’ hurdle in 2005 all whilst in the care of erstwhile trainer Vicky Scott, Snoopy Loopy hurt himself in a Worcester beginners’ chase on his Bowen debut in July 2005 and managed just one further start in the following 28 months. In stark contrast, the last 12 months have seen him turn out 14 times without a significant break; yet, as with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ similarly extensively-campaigned Pigeon Island last term, he still appears to be improving with every race.

Improving enough to make Snoopy Loopy a live proposition to become the first horse to land the Betfair Million since the new rules were introduced? It’s going to be a big ask. The BHA handicapper has reacted to Saturday’s score with an 11lb rise to 168, which, whilst meaning he’s notionally a good few pounds \”well in\” for the Hennessy, also puts him 11lb higher than any horse to contest a handicap at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and all of 23lb higher than any that finished in the first two, the criterion of this second leg of the Million.

Already it’s looking like he is going to have to rely on a top-two finish in either the Gold Cup or Ryanair, to say nothing of then defying the sort of mark in the Grand National that only Suny Bay in 1998 has gone close off since the current ratings structure was introduced 18 years ago. Not a complete logistical impossibility, then, but – as befits a reward of this stature – still just that wee bit trickier than picking six winners on a Saturday afternoon. more

Jeremy Grayson can see movement ahoy in the Champion Hurdle odds between now and March.
My friend and colleague Simon Rowlands wrote on these pages 10 days ago that: \”Katchit is out to [10.5] in the ante-post market for the 2009 Champion Hurdle on Betfair. He would not have to get much bigger to be worth a bet for a repeat win at Cheltenham in March, in spite of his limitations\”.

Wish granted, Simon, as the market fluctuations following Saturday’s appearances by a number of Champion Hurdle aspirants have included a further walk in the market for Alan King’s pocket battleship, despite him staying in his box.

A new price of [11.5] for the win on Betfair looks increasingly enticing for a horse that hasn’t had his optimum race conditions on either start so far this term. Even if you believe that ultimately something is going to improve past him in this division during 2008-9, a win or a very near miss in the Boylesports International back around his beloved Cheltenham should see his odds fall to a value most conducive to a back-to-lay strategy.

Market leader Binocular is already at that point. The [5.9] for a Champion Hurdle win on Betfair has all gone for now, but those who got a piece of before last weekend specifically for laying off later will have been delighted both with the manner of the Henderson gelding’s win in the Betfair Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday, and also with the resultant reduction from [6.0] to [5.0] of his odds in the lay market.

Visually impressive though that seasonal reappearance surely was, the victory against limited and significantly inferior fellow four year-olds didn’t really tell us too much about him, other than he still appears to possess four legs and a pulse.

Conversely, Crack Away Jack’s running of the older and wiser Chomba Womba to 1l over a truly-run distance three furlongs further than he’ll need to travel at Cheltenham still looked to me like a performance of enough substance not to warrant the walk out from [6.2] to [7.8], for all that he rather bungled two from home.

With nothing, I would suggest, likely to make an utterly irresistible case for the Champion Hurdle this side of the Boylesports at least, there’s still a lot of fun to be had with this market. Enjoy yourself, Simon, and others. more

Tareq Quiroz is excited by the Karlsson-Stenson combination Sweden are bringing to the World Cup, but there are plenty of longer-priced and worthy competitors out there…
Sometimes you just have to admit that you were beaten by the better man. Young Rory McIlroy had to endure that situation last week as he came up against an inspired Wen-tang Lin. Rarely will anyone have seen such a shot as he produced on the first play-off hole to deny McIlroy and to follow it up with the approach shot on the second play-off hole was unbelievable. Wen-tang Lin thoroughly deserved his victory and McIlroy can rest safe in the knowledge that his day will surely come. This week we turn our attention to a rare team event. The World Cup is a long established tournament that sees the top golfing nations battle it out to become ‘world champions’.

The Course
The venue this week is now a well known spot in the golfing world. Mission Hills GC has signed a long-term deal to be the host for this event and it is a move welcomed by most of the golfing fraternity. Mission Hills may have only opened in 2003 but has already been used so often that it feels like it has been around a lot longer. As you would expect, it is an immaculate course that rewards good shots and punishes bad ones. The Olazabal-designed course is 7,251 yards long and one if its immediately obvious features is the plethora of bunkers. The par-five 15th has 24 bunkers alone and it may well turn out to be the pivotal hole as the tournament reaches its conclusion on Sunday.

The Favourite
I don’t think there is any doubt as to which team has the strongest line-up for this exciting renewal of the World Cup. Sweden has managed to secure the services of Ryder Cuppers Robert Karlsson and Henrik Stenson. They are experienced strong competitors who will relish the opportunity to win something for their country. To be brutally honest we are hardly swamped with world-class players at this event so this pairing really does stand out. The big hitting Swedes will prove very hard to beat and are worthy favourites for this event. At current odds of [5.4] they are the stand out bet and are a must for the portfolio.

The Next Best Bets
Teamwork is of the utmost importance for this tournament and it is the pairing as a unit more than individuals that you need to be looking for. My main fancy would be for Germany. I can’t help but feel they have got the perfect combination. The big hitting Kaymer with the more consistent Cejka will dovetail nicely. Youth and experience are also a nice combination to have and I feel certain you will see Germany challenging for the title come late in the final day. At current odds of [24.0] they are ones to be supported.

The Massive Outsider
The chances of a three figured price winner this week are slimmer than ever. This really isn’t the type of event that we are likely to witness a huge shock. Stick to the well known teams for your punting this week. The only team that stands out to me as a potential for a decent price winner is Italy. The Molinari brothers will be a formidable team and if they can get on a roll then expect them to be a dangerous partnership. They certainly represent better value than some of the others teams ahead of them in the market and will take the honour of being my saver bet this week at odds of around [48.0].

Interesting Info
The USA are by far the most successful team in the competition with 23 wins. The event has been much more competitive in recent years and the last team to defend their title successfully were USA in 1995. Scotland will be attempting to repeat that feat this week and have a decent chance at odds of [34.0]. Ernie Els and Wayne Westner won this event by a mind boggling 18 shots for South Africa back in 1996. I am going to go out there and confidently predict that record won’t be beaten this week!
 more

Steven Rawling’s search for Arkle and Royal & SunAlliance winners continues – here he looks at the Ronny/Hall Beginners’ Chase, the Worcester and the Berkshire Novices’ Chases.
There are a couple of festival pointers at Newbury tomorrow, firstly the 12.55. A beginners chase with only five runners and only three with any sort of chance. It was won last year by Big Buck’s, favourite for Saturday’s Hennessy and his trainer Paul Nicholls sends out the huge and imposing Pasco tomorrow.

There shouldn’t be too much between him and Straw Bear after the two of them filled the places behind Sir Harry Ormesher at Exeter a little over a month ago.

Nicholls said he had come on enormously for that though and I fancy he’ll reverse the placings comfortably. Straw Bear has since run at Cheltenham, and was comprehensively put in his place by Arkle favourite Tatenen. There wasn’t an awfully lot to like about the run and his jumping was again sticky, especially early on.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Isn’t That Lucky is the only other horse in with a chance. He caught the eye at Kempton in a good race won by I’Msingingtheblues. He looks sure to improve on that and win races but this may be a bit tough for him.

The 2.05 race, the Worcester Novices’ Chase over three miles, is a very tricky contest where only the Irish raider, Ouste, can be dismissed.

Tartak is one to be very wary off. He’s certainly on an upward curve and is open to any amount of improvement after his comfortable Huntingdon success.

The Tother One, Paul Nicholls’ representative, comfortably beat Gone To Lunch on his chase debut at Exeter. He’s a little quirky and won’t want to be in front too long but it’s hard to see Gone To Lunch reversing the form, even though he’s since won himself; comfortably landing a beginners chase at Hereford last week.

Crescent Island is interesting stepped up in trip. He was no match for Tatenen over two miles but the horse he beat at Stratford won well on Wednesday.

But I’ll have an eye on the going and as long as it’s not too soft I may well side with Hold Em. His trainer, Keith Goldsworthy, feels his handicap mark of 131 is fair and that he’ll be a polished performer on good ground. I’ve already been impressed with his attitude and there wasn’t much wrong with his effort behind highly-regarded Breedsbreeze in the Rising Stars at Wincanton.

A better Royal & SunAlliance trial, despite being over only two-and-a-half miles, is the Berkshire Novices’ Chase on Friday, won by Denman in 2006. The final declarations have yet to be made at the time of writing but looking at the entries it’s sure to prove an informative race once again.

It may well help to clear the somewhat cloudy picture of the RSA market, albeit only slightly.

One of the many to have shortened in this market is Ballyfitz, who impressed many with his win at the Cheltenham Open meeting and is now around [15.0]. There was also a lot to like about the way Charlie Mann’s Shining Gale won the day before and there have been impressive enough wins for Cooldine in Ireland and Massinis Maguire at Ascot. Indeed there seems to be an almost daily springer in the RSA market and its starting to look like it’s going to be an extremely competitive renewal in March.

In contrast the Arkle market seems almost stagnant with Tatenen a firm favourite and it’s in this market I’ve had my first ante-post bet.

Despite the stable being very much out of form, Ferdy Murphy’s Kalahari King impressed again when he won his second chase. He cosily got the better of Henderson’s Shatabti at Leicester, conceding her 20lbs. Henderson was said to be a bit disappointed with his mare but I think time will show that he shouldn’t have been. I’ve taken [15.0] down to [13.0] about him and was pleased to see Cast Iron Casey frank his form on Wednesday at Sedgefield. more