Bookmaker Reviews & Sports News

Archive for November 29th, 2008

The XY Factor judges head to Kempton on Saturday for the 3.25….
Date: Saturday 29 November

Selected Race: Kempton 3.25

Suggested Bets (with current Betfair win odds):
2 point win and 2 point place MISCHIEF MAKING [12.0]

Staking Plan Records (on £1 per point basis):
Yesterday: -5.00
This Week: -5.50
All time: +10.18

Today’s Verdict:
The 1m 4f listed race at 3.25 looks ultra-competitive with the nod just going to MISCHIEF MAKING who looks good value win and place at around [12.0]. She broke the track record when winning a listed race at Lingfield last time out over 1m 5f and although this looks tougher she might be capable of further improvement.
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Not one but two selections from Mr Shiambouros today…
At Newbury today in the 2.40, Slim Pickings is a very interesting runner in this decent event. Last year, in the Grand National he was a gallant fourth to Comply Or Die and it was clear that he simply ran out out stamina otherwise he would have finished a lot closer. Last time out at Navaan, he shaped very well finishing a good second to the classy Watson Lake. This horse jumps and will stay today’s distance very well and his current price of [17.0] appears very reasonable.

Earlier at Newcastle, in the 12.40, Cloudy Times should go close in this maiden hurdle. Last time out, this Cloudings gelding won a decent bumper at Aintree in grand fashion and a big run is expected today. Currently he is trading at [2.26] on the exchange.

Today’s Selections:

Newbury, 2.40, Slim Pickings, Win and Place
Newcastle, 12.40, Cloudy Times, Win

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At Mussleburgh today in the 1.45 Broadway Star should go close in this maiden hurdle over two and a half miles. Last time out he ran very well when finishing a good second to Waterloo Road at Newcastle after looking the likely winner some way from home but he failed to find another gear over the last hurdle. I think he will appreciate today’s extra distance and is currently trading at [3.3] on the exchange.

Today’s Selection:

Mussleburgh, 1.45, Broadway Star, Win

* * *

At Taunton today in the 2.50 Nosler should put up a bold show in this maiden hurdle.This gelding shaped very well in a bumper in early 2007 when finishing a very good second to Bertie May.On his debut over hurdles at the end of October this year he was sent off at short odds but he unseated his rider at the second flight.Hopefully today with a clear round he can go close in this contest.Currently he is trading at [3.5] on the exchange.

Today’s Selection:

Taunton, 2.50, Nosler, Win

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At Wolverhampton tonight in the 7.20 North South Divide has an excellent chance to finally break his maiden at the fifteenth attempt.It is not very often I back a horse with this kind of profile but the opposition in this maiden is particularly weak and if he runs up to anywhere near his best form he should handle the modest competition.At present he is trading at [1.86] on the exchange.

Today’s Selection:

Wolverhampton, 7.20, North Side Divide, Win

* * *

At Lingfield today in the 1pm I am not going to look beyond Divali Princess in this mares only event. The selection was fortunate to win last time out when leader Circus Rose fell two out but this race has come up quite weak and with nominal improvement she should take care of the opposition. At present she is trading at [1.92] on the exchange.

Today’s Selection:

Lingfield, 1pm, Divali Princess, Win

* * *

At Lingfield today in the second race at 12.30 Sonning Gate is a horse of interest in this maiden run over a mile on the Polytrack. On debut this gelding ran very well to finish fifth to Monitor Closely in a fair maiden at Newbury. He could have finished a lot closer than his official position but met with interference and still managed to finish powerfully to suggest there was more to come. At present he is trading at [3.5] on the exchange and a big run is expected.

Today’s Selection:

Lingfield, 12.30, Sonning Gate, Win
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Nevermind currency, today’s 80/20 comes in we’ll be talking about value.
Today’s 80/20 is Any Currency in the 1.25 at Towcester. This gelding is slowly getting the hang of things and put up a very good effort in defeat last time out when finishing second to The Gossmoor Yank at Chepstow. I really think he will be suited by this stiff track today and should run well. Currently he is trading at [4.8] on the exchange. more

All is not what it should be at Arsenal but that doesn’t mean they will be incapable of rallying themselves for Sunday’s London derby, says Richard Walker.
If football was this easy, we’d all be rich…

League leaders, 10 points clear of Sunday tea-time visitors, host club in turmoil beaten in last two league matches. Home win, right? Well probably, but \”probably’s\” a word that never won anyone money.

For that’s the game we’re in here. Trying to piece together the likely storyboard for Sunday afternoon’s London derby – well enough to make sure our investments have a real chance of success.

Both sides have an equal number of influential players missing. Ricardo Carvalho, Michael Essien (injured) and Didier Drogba (suspended) won’t feature for Chelsea while Arsenal will definitely be without Kolo Toure, Emmanuel Eboue, Abou Diaby and, perhaps most crucially, Theo Walcott, who I might’ve fancied to cause the Blues problems out wide.

You could, of course, lay Arsenal to death here, with the belief that they’ll crumble. But Arsene Wenger’s side proved against Man United that they can handle themselves when all’s not as it should be. So I’m suggesting The Draw should be backed at a ripe [3.55], ignoring the chance to avail of [1.88] about a Chelsea win or [5.2] for a Gunners’ triumph.

The Draw at Half-Time, a [2.28] chance, is a must-include for my money. As is Under 2.5 goals at [1.82]. Overs is [2.18] to back but I don’t see either team – and especially Arsenal – committing themselves often enough to leave the space for a hatful of clear-cut chances. In fact, Under 1.5 goals might be worth backing at [3.35].

0-0 is surprisingly long, in my opinion, at odds of roughly [10.0] and I would strongly suggest you consider this Correct Score option. It might just be one of those utterly forgettable 90 minutes that the ‘Big Four’ fixtures do more than occasionally throw up. 1-1 is at [8.0] and, while it would bust the tentative Under 1.5 goals suggestion, would still yield a return on the 2.5 goals choice.

If there are to be goals, then the most likely protagonist is the in-form Nicolas Anelka. He rates a [2.52] chance To Score – around [6.5] for the First Goal – and I wouldn’t put you off either but perhaps, at a point longer in the To Score list, Frank Lampard (free-kicks, penalties, long-range shooting, rebounds) might be a better option. For Arsenal, the likely return of Emmanuel Adebayor offers them more goal threat but it’d be hard to back a visiting goalscorer with any real confidence.

I’m really quite uncertain as to whether I’ll be proved right or entirely wrong come 4pm on Sunday. The match has the potential to be a thriller and, yes, Big Phil Scolari is a lot more attack-minded than his predecessor. But Wenger won’t want to lose and might see a point as a job well done. We’ll see. more

The XY Factor judges were on the mark with a profit of 11.5 points on Thursday – now for Friday…..
Date: Friday 28 November

Selected Race: Kempton 5.50

Suggested Bets (with current Betfair win odds):
5 point win THE MAGIC OF RIO [2.32]

Staking Plan Records (on £1 per point basis):
Yesterday: +11.50
This Week: -0.50
All time: +15.18

Today’s Verdict:
Action Impact was a nice winner for us at Great Leighs last night. We’ll stick to the all-weather tonight for the opener at Kempton where THE MAGIC OF RIO looks a worthy favourite in the 5.50. She looks a touch too classy for these rivals and five furlongs on Polytrack looks ideal.
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It’s a huge weekend in jumps racing again so who better to whet your appetite than Racing UK Analyst Graham Cunningham.

Air Force looks the One to take home the brandy

One of the most important things to do after having an ante-post bet is to look at the race completely afresh once the big day arrives.

And, having revisited the Hennessy Gold Cup since the final declarations were published, I see no reason to regret backing Air Force One at [8.0] to land Saturday’s Newbury showpiece.

But first, a swift line on the main dangers. Big Buck’s has been primed for this and is plainly a player if his jumping holds up, while Oedipe represents bang-in-form Nicky Henderson but hasn’t caught my imagination in the way he has impressed some.

The weights have gone up to suit the freewheeling Island Flyer, whose bold jumping style looks bound to attract in running players, but Tom George’s gelding is 7lb higher than when pipped by the exposed Cornish Sett at Wincanton and turning away challenge after challenge from the front in such a big field here looks a tall order.

Hennessy winners seldom line up after losing streaks of 14, which is a worry for Slim Pickings, while I’m inclined to agree with Timeform’s view that Snoopy Loopy has it all on at these weights.

On a more positive note, I’m well aware that Albertas Run is a danger to all if back to the form he showed to land the SunAlliance Chase, while the fact that John Quinn feels Character Building can better last year’s third behind the mighty Denman is also worth noting.

However, Air Force One remains top of the short list. Some people seem adamant that Charlie Mann’s chestnut needs to go right-handed, but that flies in the face of the fact that he finished second in a Grade 2 hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and it’s highly unlikely that a flat left-handed track like Newbury will trouble him.

What isn’t in doubt is that Air Force One is a good young chaser. His crushing success in a Punchestown Grade 1 was mighty impressive and his comeback second behind Roll Along at Ascot represented a fine Hennessy trial.

Mann was delighted when the handicapper raised Air Force One just 3lb for that. I think he was right to be and anyone who backs him win and place at [7.0] or bigger can look forward to a fine run for their money.

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To lay or not to lay as Drever bids for four in a row

Number one on my list of resolutions for this jumps season is to avoid laying Inglis Drever in-running at all costs. Come to think of it let’s amend that to avoid laying Inglis Drever full stop.

Perhaps it is a legacy of having laid him on his hurdling debut at Aintree back when Betfair was still in short pants in November 2003, but it has taken me too long to latch on to just how good Howard Johnson’s gelding is.

Yes, he tends to run lazily and Aintree no longer seems his favoured venue, but this is a mighty stayer with three World Hurdles and three consecutive renewals of the Long Distance Hurdle under his belt.

But can he make it four at in the 2.05 at Newbury on Saturday? Old rival Blazing Bailey is sure to run his usual good race after a successful sortie on the Flat here, while Pettifour and Mobaasher are newcomers to the party after dominating the finish to a Grade 2 at Wetherby.

However, anyone who fancies Pettifour and Mobaasher would do well to note that Inglis Drever’s vastly inferior stablemate No Refuge was only just behind them at Wetherby.

However you read the form book, the Wetherby principals have a gulf to bridge if they are to beat the champion stayer on these terms.

Will I be backing the Drever to make it four Long Distance Hurdles on the bounce? Not necessarily. Will I be reverting to type and laying him again? Not on your life, I won’t.

* * *

Sublimity one for the each way thieves provided Newcastle gets the go ahead

Frost permitting, Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle (3.30) promises looks bound to have the each way thieves sniffing around for several reasons.

First, unless something goes amiss we have the \”dead eight\” runners; second, at least three of them seem most unlikely to be on the premises from two out; and third, the hot favourite Punjabi may not be quite the good thing that the market suggests.

Granted, Nicky Henderson’s gelding thrived last spring – finishing third in the Champion Hurdle before landing a Grade 1 at Punchestown – and since then he has shown further improvement on the Flat with two wins in May.

However, Punjabi will probably need to strike for home early in the straight in order to win this and I wonder if one of a trio of dangerous hold-up horses might run him down late.

Blue Bajan is an improver with a smart turn of foot, while anyone tempted to think time is catching up with Harchibald would do well to note that he has won this twice and made Al Eile and Katchit look ordinary for his latest success 12 months ago.

Last but not least, we have Sublimity, who has left John Carr to join rookie handler Robbie Hennessy having been beaten twice by Punjabi last spring. Those two defeats will ensure Sublimity starts a fair price, but he’s better than he showed on both occasions as the mud found him out at Cheltenham and he was ridden with too much confidence at Punchy.

In summary, I’m not averse to having a crack at Punjabi here. Harchibald will almost certainly trade short at some point, but it’s way too early to assume that Sublimity has lost the dash that won him last year’s Champion Hurdle and having Davy Russell aboard to replace the injured Philip Carberry certainly doesn’t harm his chance.

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Tranquil Sea has hidden depths ahead of his Drinmore test

Lastly this week, a few words on the big Sunday card at Fairyhouse.

And, given that my editor Joe Dyer has told me to keep it brief because the meeting is covered in detail elsewhere on this site, the two crucial words are Tranquil Sea.

Edward O’Grady’s gelding really blossomed over hurdles last spring and made a highly impressive chasing debut at Cork recently.

He takes a marked step up in class in the Drinmore Chase at 1.40, but I’m keen to be against Forpadydeplasterer after his laboured Punchestown win. The hardy Trafford Lad looks a bigger danger after two wins at the latter venue, but Tranquil Sea looks open to bags of improvement over fences and his finishing speed could make the difference in a race with a rich tradition for producing stars of the future. more

As the players recharge their batteries and asses the rights and wrongs of the season just gone, Betfair backers should do exactly the same in order to make the best bets in 2009, says Matthew Walton.
The end of the ATP Tour for 2008 gives us a couple of weeks to catch our breath … before we plough headlong back into the action for 2009 as Doha, Chennai and Brisbane stage the first events of new season.

What the players will now do is re-charge their batteries, work on the areas of their game which need improving, learn from their losses and aim to improve upon their successes for the year ahead.

And as Betfair backers, we should be no different.

This short break gives us the chance to review what has happened during the past 11 months in the world of professional tennis and use our findings to improve our own performance for the new season. In other words, make more money on Betfair!

Last week we took a look at the Fab Four of Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray (read full article here) and in the coming weeks we’ll discuss the movers and shakers on tour, who’s hot and who’s not for 2009 and also highlight some key betting hints to make your future tennis betting even more profitable.

This time around we’re looking at the subject of ‘new kids on the block’. Which players have appeared for the first time on the roll-call of champions in 2008, what kind of profile they had and who can we expect to shed their maiden tag during 2009.

With regards to the main tour we saw no fewer than 11 first time winners in 2008.

To put this into some kind of context, our studies show the average number of first time winners during the 1980′s was 12.42 per year. This rose slightly in the 1990′s up to an average yearly total of 13.0.

So far in the 2000′s we’ve seen annual figures of 9, 10, 12, 9, 13, 8, 11, 5 and now 11 this past year. That makes an average of 9.77 first time winners on tour each year of this century.

Taking that figure in its most literal sense, from an annual schedule of 66 tournaments, take out the Grand Slams and Masters Series competitions (never the easiest to win for a first title) and that leaves 53 events to consider.

Rounding up the 9.77 average to a figure of 10 maiden winners per year, from those 53 possible titles you’d have a maiden winner 19% of the time – which would make a first time winner of any run-of-the-mill tournament around the [5.5] mark.

As for the first timers of 2008 they were Kei Nishikori (age 18, Delray Beach), Juan Martin Del Potro (19, Stuttgart), Marin Cilic (19, New Haven), Sam Querrey (20, Las Vegas), Sergiy Stakhovsky (22, Zagreb), Marcel Granollers (22, Houston), Jo-Wilfred Tsonga (23, Bangkok), Philipp Petzschner (24, Vienna), Victor Hanescu (26, Gstaad), Albert Montanes (27, Amersfoort) and Igor Kunitsyn (27, Moscow).

None of them winning, it has to be said, stellar events. Only the win of Juan Martin Del Potro came in a International Series Gold event, all the rest were in the regular – what you might call ‘bog-standard’ – International Series tournaments.

Their average age, 22.54, is in line with the general view that if players are going to win on tour, they tend to do it early in their career. The oldest first time winners in 2008 were both 27 (Montanes & Kunitsyn) and you won’t find too many examples of players older than that landing a first tour win.

Added to that, eight of the players were contesting their first ATP final, i.e. they weren’t serial losers. For both Hanescu and Tsonga this was their second career final and for Montanes his 5th career decider. The other eight players were all playing in, and winning, their first final.

One other vital point to note as well, every one of these players had won previously on the Challenger Tour. Of course, every player will have won tournaments as a junior as they progress up to professional status but the Challenger Tour, just below the main tour, isn’t a million miles away from the standard of these weak main tour events. Hence, if you can win on that circuit, you can easily progress to winning on the big stage.

Tsonga had won no less than eight of these lesser titles whilst Hanescu, Montanes and Kunitsyn had all landed five events apiece. Querrey and Del Potro (three each), Granollers and Cilic (two) and the rest had all registered a single success in the past. In short, they all knew how to win.

So what can we say about first time winners? Broadly speaking they (a) win low key events (b) tend to be aged from 19-23 (c) this is either their first or second tour final (d) they have previously won on the Challenger Tour (e) there will be somewhere between 8-12 such winners in 2009.

Using this photo-fit who should you be looking for on Betfair next year as a potential first time winner?

Well, top of the list would be Ernests Gulbis, the talented young Latvian. He’s 20, won four times on the Challenger Tour and looks a decent prospect. A couple of clay-courters would be the Argentine, Eduardo Schwank and, the Brazillian, Thomaz Bellucci. Both have won four titles at the lesser grade and have shown flashes of ability on the main tour. Jeremy Chardy, a young French player could also claim a first crown.

Others like Viktor Troicki of Serbia and Simone Bolelli of Italy – both of whom made a first ATP final in 2008 – also fit the bill of potential first timers and possibly Janko Tipsarevic. We say possibly as the Serb is prolific at Challenger level, with nine victories, but might just be one of those perennial bridesmaids who always finds one too good. He is 24 after all.

These are just a few names to look out for in 2009. As we know, every year there will be new winners on tour (just as there are players who drop off the roll of honour) and often they go in at big prices. Most of the 11 players who won for a first time in 2008 were [51.00] plus, even better than [101.00].

That being the case, a little study is perhaps no bad thing. More so if it can make your new year on Betfair even more profitable than this year has been! more

All the betting moves from Kempton and Dundalk.
KEMPTON

5.50
The Magic Of Rio, 1.88 out to 2.22

6.20
Choisarp, 4.10 out to 5.70

6.50
Fantosha, 4.90 out to 5.80

7.20
Captain Walcot, 5.80 out to 10.0

7.50
Impression Art, 8.30 out to 9.60
Hawkspring, 6.0 out to 7.40

8.20
Copper King, 9.65 in to 5.30
Franksalot, 6.37 out to 8.80
Samson Quest, 10.62 in to 8.60

8.50
Perfect Act, 7.60 out to 11.0
Orpenindeed, 6.25 out to 9.20

9.20
Blue Charm, 5.40 out to 6.60
Spoof Master, 18.0 in to 14.0

DUNDALK

7.10
Imco Spirit, 10.0 in to 4.60

7.40
Pozyc, 4.0 in to 3.25

8.10
Young Jemmy, 6.20 out to 9.40  more

Darrell Williams is looking for track experience and form as he tries to make sense of this year’s Oaks’ field.
It’s simple mathematics – 132 into 48 does not go! But that was the task faced by Wimbledon in trying to whittle down the massively over-subscribed entry for the Oaks, which begins on Tuesday with eight first round heats and culminates with a grand final, live on Sky Sports, a fortnight later (16th December).

Last year, I was frantically counting the days down, having fancied Blonde Jeannie massively for outright glory; the rest, as they say, is history!

This year’s field contains any number of unexposed improving bitches and a stack more hitting form after their seasonal breaks, but I still take the view that when it comes to the Classic, the cream will rise to the top. I’m looking for the runners that know their way around, ideally with at least a spot of Wimbledon experience, and most importantly are in good form. Never has a truer phrase been spoken than the importance of following a bitch in form.

That philosophy leads me to a race played out in front of Sky’s cameras at Nottingham on Eclipse night just over a week ago between Lochbo Meg and Kilelton Rose who fought out a riveting finish with just half a length between them.

The determination shown by the Karen Sim trained first named to get back up after being headed close home probably explains why Lochbo Meg has now won nine of her last fourteen starts. A winner of the Sunderland Oaks back in the summer, she a must for the ante-post portfolio, and would have been my main choice were it not for the fact she has yet to have been round Wimbledon, and also that she faces an early threat at trap rise in her heat (8.15) from local early paced railer Bevs Gem, drawn in trap two.

Given those slight concerns I am therefore making Kilelton Rose my main long range choice. A semi-finalist last year, Seamus Cahill’s charge is three times a winner at Wimbledon (from eight attempts), with the most recent, a win over the Oaks trip on Leger final night, undoubtedly the most impressive. On that occasion she comfortably accounted for Midland Oaks winner Klockwork Kyla, and with a sequence of five wins in her last eight starts certainly fits the bill of being a bitch in form.

I also rate Killough Belles who has arguably returned in even better form than she was in prior to a three month layoff. Her record of eight wins and four seconds from 14 British starts confirms her consistency and I include her as my third selection. Given the benefit
of a trial at Wimbledon the other day, she has drawn a hot heat (9.45), and will need to avoid rails edging Droopys Ariadne as the boxes open.

Others to keep on the right side of are Dangerous Lady, looking to have hit peak form after her season break, and now starting to win races. She was also a semi-finalist last year and can qualify from Lochbo Meg’s heat, while Kent Leger runner-up Steady Scholes, could hardly have been more impressive in winning an Open over the CD last weekend, and looks nailed on for the 8.30 heat. more