Bookmaker Reviews & Sports News

Archive for November, 2008

All is not what it should be at Arsenal but that doesn’t mean they will be incapable of rallying themselves for Sunday’s London derby, says Richard Walker.
If football was this easy, we’d all be rich…

League leaders, 10 points clear of Sunday tea-time visitors, host club in turmoil beaten in last two league matches. Home win, right? Well probably, but \”probably’s\” a word that never won anyone money.

For that’s the game we’re in here. Trying to piece together the likely storyboard for Sunday afternoon’s London derby – well enough to make sure our investments have a real chance of success.

Both sides have an equal number of influential players missing. Ricardo Carvalho, Michael Essien (injured) and Didier Drogba (suspended) won’t feature for Chelsea while Arsenal will definitely be without Kolo Toure, Emmanuel Eboue, Abou Diaby and, perhaps most crucially, Theo Walcott, who I might’ve fancied to cause the Blues problems out wide.

You could, of course, lay Arsenal to death here, with the belief that they’ll crumble. But Arsene Wenger’s side proved against Man United that they can handle themselves when all’s not as it should be. So I’m suggesting The Draw should be backed at a ripe [3.55], ignoring the chance to avail of [1.88] about a Chelsea win or [5.2] for a Gunners’ triumph.

The Draw at Half-Time, a [2.28] chance, is a must-include for my money. As is Under 2.5 goals at [1.82]. Overs is [2.18] to back but I don’t see either team – and especially Arsenal – committing themselves often enough to leave the space for a hatful of clear-cut chances. In fact, Under 1.5 goals might be worth backing at [3.35].

0-0 is surprisingly long, in my opinion, at odds of roughly [10.0] and I would strongly suggest you consider this Correct Score option. It might just be one of those utterly forgettable 90 minutes that the ‘Big Four’ fixtures do more than occasionally throw up. 1-1 is at [8.0] and, while it would bust the tentative Under 1.5 goals suggestion, would still yield a return on the 2.5 goals choice.

If there are to be goals, then the most likely protagonist is the in-form Nicolas Anelka. He rates a [2.52] chance To Score – around [6.5] for the First Goal – and I wouldn’t put you off either but perhaps, at a point longer in the To Score list, Frank Lampard (free-kicks, penalties, long-range shooting, rebounds) might be a better option. For Arsenal, the likely return of Emmanuel Adebayor offers them more goal threat but it’d be hard to back a visiting goalscorer with any real confidence.

I’m really quite uncertain as to whether I’ll be proved right or entirely wrong come 4pm on Sunday. The match has the potential to be a thriller and, yes, Big Phil Scolari is a lot more attack-minded than his predecessor. But Wenger won’t want to lose and might see a point as a job well done. We’ll see. more

The XY Factor judges were on the mark with a profit of 11.5 points on Thursday – now for Friday…..
Date: Friday 28 November

Selected Race: Kempton 5.50

Suggested Bets (with current Betfair win odds):
5 point win THE MAGIC OF RIO [2.32]

Staking Plan Records (on £1 per point basis):
Yesterday: +11.50
This Week: -0.50
All time: +15.18

Today’s Verdict:
Action Impact was a nice winner for us at Great Leighs last night. We’ll stick to the all-weather tonight for the opener at Kempton where THE MAGIC OF RIO looks a worthy favourite in the 5.50. She looks a touch too classy for these rivals and five furlongs on Polytrack looks ideal.
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It’s a huge weekend in jumps racing again so who better to whet your appetite than Racing UK Analyst Graham Cunningham.

Air Force looks the One to take home the brandy

One of the most important things to do after having an ante-post bet is to look at the race completely afresh once the big day arrives.

And, having revisited the Hennessy Gold Cup since the final declarations were published, I see no reason to regret backing Air Force One at [8.0] to land Saturday’s Newbury showpiece.

But first, a swift line on the main dangers. Big Buck’s has been primed for this and is plainly a player if his jumping holds up, while Oedipe represents bang-in-form Nicky Henderson but hasn’t caught my imagination in the way he has impressed some.

The weights have gone up to suit the freewheeling Island Flyer, whose bold jumping style looks bound to attract in running players, but Tom George’s gelding is 7lb higher than when pipped by the exposed Cornish Sett at Wincanton and turning away challenge after challenge from the front in such a big field here looks a tall order.

Hennessy winners seldom line up after losing streaks of 14, which is a worry for Slim Pickings, while I’m inclined to agree with Timeform’s view that Snoopy Loopy has it all on at these weights.

On a more positive note, I’m well aware that Albertas Run is a danger to all if back to the form he showed to land the SunAlliance Chase, while the fact that John Quinn feels Character Building can better last year’s third behind the mighty Denman is also worth noting.

However, Air Force One remains top of the short list. Some people seem adamant that Charlie Mann’s chestnut needs to go right-handed, but that flies in the face of the fact that he finished second in a Grade 2 hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and it’s highly unlikely that a flat left-handed track like Newbury will trouble him.

What isn’t in doubt is that Air Force One is a good young chaser. His crushing success in a Punchestown Grade 1 was mighty impressive and his comeback second behind Roll Along at Ascot represented a fine Hennessy trial.

Mann was delighted when the handicapper raised Air Force One just 3lb for that. I think he was right to be and anyone who backs him win and place at [7.0] or bigger can look forward to a fine run for their money.

* * *

To lay or not to lay as Drever bids for four in a row

Number one on my list of resolutions for this jumps season is to avoid laying Inglis Drever in-running at all costs. Come to think of it let’s amend that to avoid laying Inglis Drever full stop.

Perhaps it is a legacy of having laid him on his hurdling debut at Aintree back when Betfair was still in short pants in November 2003, but it has taken me too long to latch on to just how good Howard Johnson’s gelding is.

Yes, he tends to run lazily and Aintree no longer seems his favoured venue, but this is a mighty stayer with three World Hurdles and three consecutive renewals of the Long Distance Hurdle under his belt.

But can he make it four at in the 2.05 at Newbury on Saturday? Old rival Blazing Bailey is sure to run his usual good race after a successful sortie on the Flat here, while Pettifour and Mobaasher are newcomers to the party after dominating the finish to a Grade 2 at Wetherby.

However, anyone who fancies Pettifour and Mobaasher would do well to note that Inglis Drever’s vastly inferior stablemate No Refuge was only just behind them at Wetherby.

However you read the form book, the Wetherby principals have a gulf to bridge if they are to beat the champion stayer on these terms.

Will I be backing the Drever to make it four Long Distance Hurdles on the bounce? Not necessarily. Will I be reverting to type and laying him again? Not on your life, I won’t.

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Sublimity one for the each way thieves provided Newcastle gets the go ahead

Frost permitting, Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle (3.30) promises looks bound to have the each way thieves sniffing around for several reasons.

First, unless something goes amiss we have the \”dead eight\” runners; second, at least three of them seem most unlikely to be on the premises from two out; and third, the hot favourite Punjabi may not be quite the good thing that the market suggests.

Granted, Nicky Henderson’s gelding thrived last spring – finishing third in the Champion Hurdle before landing a Grade 1 at Punchestown – and since then he has shown further improvement on the Flat with two wins in May.

However, Punjabi will probably need to strike for home early in the straight in order to win this and I wonder if one of a trio of dangerous hold-up horses might run him down late.

Blue Bajan is an improver with a smart turn of foot, while anyone tempted to think time is catching up with Harchibald would do well to note that he has won this twice and made Al Eile and Katchit look ordinary for his latest success 12 months ago.

Last but not least, we have Sublimity, who has left John Carr to join rookie handler Robbie Hennessy having been beaten twice by Punjabi last spring. Those two defeats will ensure Sublimity starts a fair price, but he’s better than he showed on both occasions as the mud found him out at Cheltenham and he was ridden with too much confidence at Punchy.

In summary, I’m not averse to having a crack at Punjabi here. Harchibald will almost certainly trade short at some point, but it’s way too early to assume that Sublimity has lost the dash that won him last year’s Champion Hurdle and having Davy Russell aboard to replace the injured Philip Carberry certainly doesn’t harm his chance.

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Tranquil Sea has hidden depths ahead of his Drinmore test

Lastly this week, a few words on the big Sunday card at Fairyhouse.

And, given that my editor Joe Dyer has told me to keep it brief because the meeting is covered in detail elsewhere on this site, the two crucial words are Tranquil Sea.

Edward O’Grady’s gelding really blossomed over hurdles last spring and made a highly impressive chasing debut at Cork recently.

He takes a marked step up in class in the Drinmore Chase at 1.40, but I’m keen to be against Forpadydeplasterer after his laboured Punchestown win. The hardy Trafford Lad looks a bigger danger after two wins at the latter venue, but Tranquil Sea looks open to bags of improvement over fences and his finishing speed could make the difference in a race with a rich tradition for producing stars of the future. more

As the players recharge their batteries and asses the rights and wrongs of the season just gone, Betfair backers should do exactly the same in order to make the best bets in 2009, says Matthew Walton.
The end of the ATP Tour for 2008 gives us a couple of weeks to catch our breath … before we plough headlong back into the action for 2009 as Doha, Chennai and Brisbane stage the first events of new season.

What the players will now do is re-charge their batteries, work on the areas of their game which need improving, learn from their losses and aim to improve upon their successes for the year ahead.

And as Betfair backers, we should be no different.

This short break gives us the chance to review what has happened during the past 11 months in the world of professional tennis and use our findings to improve our own performance for the new season. In other words, make more money on Betfair!

Last week we took a look at the Fab Four of Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray (read full article here) and in the coming weeks we’ll discuss the movers and shakers on tour, who’s hot and who’s not for 2009 and also highlight some key betting hints to make your future tennis betting even more profitable.

This time around we’re looking at the subject of ‘new kids on the block’. Which players have appeared for the first time on the roll-call of champions in 2008, what kind of profile they had and who can we expect to shed their maiden tag during 2009.

With regards to the main tour we saw no fewer than 11 first time winners in 2008.

To put this into some kind of context, our studies show the average number of first time winners during the 1980′s was 12.42 per year. This rose slightly in the 1990′s up to an average yearly total of 13.0.

So far in the 2000′s we’ve seen annual figures of 9, 10, 12, 9, 13, 8, 11, 5 and now 11 this past year. That makes an average of 9.77 first time winners on tour each year of this century.

Taking that figure in its most literal sense, from an annual schedule of 66 tournaments, take out the Grand Slams and Masters Series competitions (never the easiest to win for a first title) and that leaves 53 events to consider.

Rounding up the 9.77 average to a figure of 10 maiden winners per year, from those 53 possible titles you’d have a maiden winner 19% of the time – which would make a first time winner of any run-of-the-mill tournament around the [5.5] mark.

As for the first timers of 2008 they were Kei Nishikori (age 18, Delray Beach), Juan Martin Del Potro (19, Stuttgart), Marin Cilic (19, New Haven), Sam Querrey (20, Las Vegas), Sergiy Stakhovsky (22, Zagreb), Marcel Granollers (22, Houston), Jo-Wilfred Tsonga (23, Bangkok), Philipp Petzschner (24, Vienna), Victor Hanescu (26, Gstaad), Albert Montanes (27, Amersfoort) and Igor Kunitsyn (27, Moscow).

None of them winning, it has to be said, stellar events. Only the win of Juan Martin Del Potro came in a International Series Gold event, all the rest were in the regular – what you might call ‘bog-standard’ – International Series tournaments.

Their average age, 22.54, is in line with the general view that if players are going to win on tour, they tend to do it early in their career. The oldest first time winners in 2008 were both 27 (Montanes & Kunitsyn) and you won’t find too many examples of players older than that landing a first tour win.

Added to that, eight of the players were contesting their first ATP final, i.e. they weren’t serial losers. For both Hanescu and Tsonga this was their second career final and for Montanes his 5th career decider. The other eight players were all playing in, and winning, their first final.

One other vital point to note as well, every one of these players had won previously on the Challenger Tour. Of course, every player will have won tournaments as a junior as they progress up to professional status but the Challenger Tour, just below the main tour, isn’t a million miles away from the standard of these weak main tour events. Hence, if you can win on that circuit, you can easily progress to winning on the big stage.

Tsonga had won no less than eight of these lesser titles whilst Hanescu, Montanes and Kunitsyn had all landed five events apiece. Querrey and Del Potro (three each), Granollers and Cilic (two) and the rest had all registered a single success in the past. In short, they all knew how to win.

So what can we say about first time winners? Broadly speaking they (a) win low key events (b) tend to be aged from 19-23 (c) this is either their first or second tour final (d) they have previously won on the Challenger Tour (e) there will be somewhere between 8-12 such winners in 2009.

Using this photo-fit who should you be looking for on Betfair next year as a potential first time winner?

Well, top of the list would be Ernests Gulbis, the talented young Latvian. He’s 20, won four times on the Challenger Tour and looks a decent prospect. A couple of clay-courters would be the Argentine, Eduardo Schwank and, the Brazillian, Thomaz Bellucci. Both have won four titles at the lesser grade and have shown flashes of ability on the main tour. Jeremy Chardy, a young French player could also claim a first crown.

Others like Viktor Troicki of Serbia and Simone Bolelli of Italy – both of whom made a first ATP final in 2008 – also fit the bill of potential first timers and possibly Janko Tipsarevic. We say possibly as the Serb is prolific at Challenger level, with nine victories, but might just be one of those perennial bridesmaids who always finds one too good. He is 24 after all.

These are just a few names to look out for in 2009. As we know, every year there will be new winners on tour (just as there are players who drop off the roll of honour) and often they go in at big prices. Most of the 11 players who won for a first time in 2008 were [51.00] plus, even better than [101.00].

That being the case, a little study is perhaps no bad thing. More so if it can make your new year on Betfair even more profitable than this year has been! more

All the betting moves from Kempton and Dundalk.
KEMPTON

5.50
The Magic Of Rio, 1.88 out to 2.22

6.20
Choisarp, 4.10 out to 5.70

6.50
Fantosha, 4.90 out to 5.80

7.20
Captain Walcot, 5.80 out to 10.0

7.50
Impression Art, 8.30 out to 9.60
Hawkspring, 6.0 out to 7.40

8.20
Copper King, 9.65 in to 5.30
Franksalot, 6.37 out to 8.80
Samson Quest, 10.62 in to 8.60

8.50
Perfect Act, 7.60 out to 11.0
Orpenindeed, 6.25 out to 9.20

9.20
Blue Charm, 5.40 out to 6.60
Spoof Master, 18.0 in to 14.0

DUNDALK

7.10
Imco Spirit, 10.0 in to 4.60

7.40
Pozyc, 4.0 in to 3.25

8.10
Young Jemmy, 6.20 out to 9.40  more

Darrell Williams is looking for track experience and form as he tries to make sense of this year’s Oaks’ field.
It’s simple mathematics – 132 into 48 does not go! But that was the task faced by Wimbledon in trying to whittle down the massively over-subscribed entry for the Oaks, which begins on Tuesday with eight first round heats and culminates with a grand final, live on Sky Sports, a fortnight later (16th December).

Last year, I was frantically counting the days down, having fancied Blonde Jeannie massively for outright glory; the rest, as they say, is history!

This year’s field contains any number of unexposed improving bitches and a stack more hitting form after their seasonal breaks, but I still take the view that when it comes to the Classic, the cream will rise to the top. I’m looking for the runners that know their way around, ideally with at least a spot of Wimbledon experience, and most importantly are in good form. Never has a truer phrase been spoken than the importance of following a bitch in form.

That philosophy leads me to a race played out in front of Sky’s cameras at Nottingham on Eclipse night just over a week ago between Lochbo Meg and Kilelton Rose who fought out a riveting finish with just half a length between them.

The determination shown by the Karen Sim trained first named to get back up after being headed close home probably explains why Lochbo Meg has now won nine of her last fourteen starts. A winner of the Sunderland Oaks back in the summer, she a must for the ante-post portfolio, and would have been my main choice were it not for the fact she has yet to have been round Wimbledon, and also that she faces an early threat at trap rise in her heat (8.15) from local early paced railer Bevs Gem, drawn in trap two.

Given those slight concerns I am therefore making Kilelton Rose my main long range choice. A semi-finalist last year, Seamus Cahill’s charge is three times a winner at Wimbledon (from eight attempts), with the most recent, a win over the Oaks trip on Leger final night, undoubtedly the most impressive. On that occasion she comfortably accounted for Midland Oaks winner Klockwork Kyla, and with a sequence of five wins in her last eight starts certainly fits the bill of being a bitch in form.

I also rate Killough Belles who has arguably returned in even better form than she was in prior to a three month layoff. Her record of eight wins and four seconds from 14 British starts confirms her consistency and I include her as my third selection. Given the benefit
of a trial at Wimbledon the other day, she has drawn a hot heat (9.45), and will need to avoid rails edging Droopys Ariadne as the boxes open.

Others to keep on the right side of are Dangerous Lady, looking to have hit peak form after her season break, and now starting to win races. She was also a semi-finalist last year and can qualify from Lochbo Meg’s heat, while Kent Leger runner-up Steady Scholes, could hardly have been more impressive in winning an Open over the CD last weekend, and looks nailed on for the 8.30 heat. more

The Essex Vase continues with three semi-finals at Romford this evening, with Darell Williams wondering how effective Bubbly Totti will be around the track.
The Leger winner had to work hard on Friday before eventually coming through to win his first round heat, and trainer Ted Soppitt fully expects his charge to improve for his first competitive look at the circuit. Certainly tonight’s race [8.53] should be run to suit him with three front runners potentially ready to set the race up for a stronger finisher. But I for one still have my doubts about his effectiveness at Romford and certainly if he’s [1.6] or [1.7] as seems likely, I’d rather take him on.

Brickfield Dream really shouldn’t be good enough, but then who expected him to win the other night? And at [26.0] he’s certainly worth a throw away wager. His draw outside rails favoring Ullid Amy and inside Bubbly Totti should give him the chance to run his race. Admittedly fellow front runners Saucy Jim (doesn’t stay) and Westmead Tina won’t make it easy, and realistically if you’re taking on ‘Totti’, Westmead Tina is a more obvious pick. Her first round win came via a first look at the track and at [11.5] outright I’ve added her to the ante post portfolio.

Bet of the night is undoubtedly fellow Nick Savva inmate Westmead Pal in the first semi [8.35]. He ran riot in the opening round and can lead fellow railer Bomber Blue, while outside neighbor Droopys Carvalho will edge right. Anything above [2.5] looks fair, but I’m hoping for bigger with Sussex Cup winner ‘Carvalho’ likely to help make the market. The latter was one of my original ante post picks and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t also qualify from a relatively weak heat.

The other semi-final is a minefield [9.09] although I would love to see Vatican Jinky run a repeat of his opening round effort. Included in the long term bets before that race at well over [21.0] on his first start for nearly a year, last year’s third has an excellent chance on that run, but trainer Pat Rosney has already highlighted that he bounced on his second run back in similar circumstances last year and I’m tempted to lay a bit back even at this stage.

The fact it’s an all railers affair certainly doesn’t help, but tentatively I just favor Sherries Boy, whose off the pace style may prove decisive.
The Romford Puppy Cup Final on Friday looks a match to me between Deanridge Ammo and Confident Kermit; with the former by virtue of an inside draw getting the nod. A reproduction of his first round heat would make him a good thing, but ‘Kermit’ was quicker in the semi-final and will be suited by the middle draw. However the presence of inconsistent but classy Droopys Quinta next door must be a worry, and Paul Young’s runner, who is equally at home on or off the pace, can take advantage.
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Jeremy Grayson reflects on a dramatic weekend in horseracing with the Scoop6 and Snoopy Loopy making the headlines.
Oh, the irony.

Certain corners of cyberspace resounded with cries of discontent last Friday, as the identity of the six constituent legs of the Tote Scoop6 became known.

Here, it was argued, was the biggest prize in recent – if not all-time – British horseracing gambling history being rendered unattainable by some wilfully obtuse race selections. Four Flat contests from Lingfield (make sure you’re as annoyed when the Summer Plate meeting steals at least two legs of the Scoop6 back from the Flat meetings again next July, gentlemen) and a 0-105 Huntingdon marathon handicap hurdle were selected in preference to any of the races likely to be rich in National Hunt Festival pointers.

You know the rest, of course. No leg of the Scoop6 returned a winner bigger than 15-2, whereas the Betfair Chase – the most grievous omission from the competition to many – returned a winner at 33-1, the biggest-priced victor of any race at the six meetings in Britain and Ireland on Saturday and more than twice the odds of the day’s next biggest.

Happier in hindsight to have had a run for your money without Snoopy Loopy smashing you out of the contest barely 15 minutes into it? Thought so. It would have been interesting to learn how many of the eight sets of individuals and syndicates who shared the jackpot would have picked Peter Bowen’s 10 year-old over Kauto Star or Exotic Dancer had they been required to do so – I’d guess at none or close to none.

With two Listed contests and a 0-100 handicap all gracing Kempton’s well above-par Polytrack card, nobody should automatically expect this Saturday’s Scoop6 to revert to just high-class jumps fare, even with the prize fund down to a comparatively small total. At least there should be enough of a whiff of familiarity about the Kempton action to appease the milquetoasts, with weekend winners Atlantic Story and Duff both likely to reappear.

Back over the sticks, it looks as if Snoopy Loopy’s period of rest may be similarly short with a tilt at the Hennessy a distinct possibility.

You can’t blame Bowen for striking whilst the iron is hot with his Old Vic-gelding. A winner of two bumpers in 2004 and a 25-runner Punchestown Festival novices’ hurdle in 2005 all whilst in the care of erstwhile trainer Vicky Scott, Snoopy Loopy hurt himself in a Worcester beginners’ chase on his Bowen debut in July 2005 and managed just one further start in the following 28 months. In stark contrast, the last 12 months have seen him turn out 14 times without a significant break; yet, as with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ similarly extensively-campaigned Pigeon Island last term, he still appears to be improving with every race.

Improving enough to make Snoopy Loopy a live proposition to become the first horse to land the Betfair Million since the new rules were introduced? It’s going to be a big ask. The BHA handicapper has reacted to Saturday’s score with an 11lb rise to 168, which, whilst meaning he’s notionally a good few pounds \”well in\” for the Hennessy, also puts him 11lb higher than any horse to contest a handicap at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and all of 23lb higher than any that finished in the first two, the criterion of this second leg of the Million.

Already it’s looking like he is going to have to rely on a top-two finish in either the Gold Cup or Ryanair, to say nothing of then defying the sort of mark in the Grand National that only Suny Bay in 1998 has gone close off since the current ratings structure was introduced 18 years ago. Not a complete logistical impossibility, then, but – as befits a reward of this stature – still just that wee bit trickier than picking six winners on a Saturday afternoon. more

Jeremy Grayson can see movement ahoy in the Champion Hurdle odds between now and March.
My friend and colleague Simon Rowlands wrote on these pages 10 days ago that: \”Katchit is out to [10.5] in the ante-post market for the 2009 Champion Hurdle on Betfair. He would not have to get much bigger to be worth a bet for a repeat win at Cheltenham in March, in spite of his limitations\”.

Wish granted, Simon, as the market fluctuations following Saturday’s appearances by a number of Champion Hurdle aspirants have included a further walk in the market for Alan King’s pocket battleship, despite him staying in his box.

A new price of [11.5] for the win on Betfair looks increasingly enticing for a horse that hasn’t had his optimum race conditions on either start so far this term. Even if you believe that ultimately something is going to improve past him in this division during 2008-9, a win or a very near miss in the Boylesports International back around his beloved Cheltenham should see his odds fall to a value most conducive to a back-to-lay strategy.

Market leader Binocular is already at that point. The [5.9] for a Champion Hurdle win on Betfair has all gone for now, but those who got a piece of before last weekend specifically for laying off later will have been delighted both with the manner of the Henderson gelding’s win in the Betfair Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday, and also with the resultant reduction from [6.0] to [5.0] of his odds in the lay market.

Visually impressive though that seasonal reappearance surely was, the victory against limited and significantly inferior fellow four year-olds didn’t really tell us too much about him, other than he still appears to possess four legs and a pulse.

Conversely, Crack Away Jack’s running of the older and wiser Chomba Womba to 1l over a truly-run distance three furlongs further than he’ll need to travel at Cheltenham still looked to me like a performance of enough substance not to warrant the walk out from [6.2] to [7.8], for all that he rather bungled two from home.

With nothing, I would suggest, likely to make an utterly irresistible case for the Champion Hurdle this side of the Boylesports at least, there’s still a lot of fun to be had with this market. Enjoy yourself, Simon, and others. more

Tareq Quiroz is excited by the Karlsson-Stenson combination Sweden are bringing to the World Cup, but there are plenty of longer-priced and worthy competitors out there…
Sometimes you just have to admit that you were beaten by the better man. Young Rory McIlroy had to endure that situation last week as he came up against an inspired Wen-tang Lin. Rarely will anyone have seen such a shot as he produced on the first play-off hole to deny McIlroy and to follow it up with the approach shot on the second play-off hole was unbelievable. Wen-tang Lin thoroughly deserved his victory and McIlroy can rest safe in the knowledge that his day will surely come. This week we turn our attention to a rare team event. The World Cup is a long established tournament that sees the top golfing nations battle it out to become ‘world champions’.

The Course
The venue this week is now a well known spot in the golfing world. Mission Hills GC has signed a long-term deal to be the host for this event and it is a move welcomed by most of the golfing fraternity. Mission Hills may have only opened in 2003 but has already been used so often that it feels like it has been around a lot longer. As you would expect, it is an immaculate course that rewards good shots and punishes bad ones. The Olazabal-designed course is 7,251 yards long and one if its immediately obvious features is the plethora of bunkers. The par-five 15th has 24 bunkers alone and it may well turn out to be the pivotal hole as the tournament reaches its conclusion on Sunday.

The Favourite
I don’t think there is any doubt as to which team has the strongest line-up for this exciting renewal of the World Cup. Sweden has managed to secure the services of Ryder Cuppers Robert Karlsson and Henrik Stenson. They are experienced strong competitors who will relish the opportunity to win something for their country. To be brutally honest we are hardly swamped with world-class players at this event so this pairing really does stand out. The big hitting Swedes will prove very hard to beat and are worthy favourites for this event. At current odds of [5.4] they are the stand out bet and are a must for the portfolio.

The Next Best Bets
Teamwork is of the utmost importance for this tournament and it is the pairing as a unit more than individuals that you need to be looking for. My main fancy would be for Germany. I can’t help but feel they have got the perfect combination. The big hitting Kaymer with the more consistent Cejka will dovetail nicely. Youth and experience are also a nice combination to have and I feel certain you will see Germany challenging for the title come late in the final day. At current odds of [24.0] they are ones to be supported.

The Massive Outsider
The chances of a three figured price winner this week are slimmer than ever. This really isn’t the type of event that we are likely to witness a huge shock. Stick to the well known teams for your punting this week. The only team that stands out to me as a potential for a decent price winner is Italy. The Molinari brothers will be a formidable team and if they can get on a roll then expect them to be a dangerous partnership. They certainly represent better value than some of the others teams ahead of them in the market and will take the honour of being my saver bet this week at odds of around [48.0].

Interesting Info
The USA are by far the most successful team in the competition with 23 wins. The event has been much more competitive in recent years and the last team to defend their title successfully were USA in 1995. Scotland will be attempting to repeat that feat this week and have a decent chance at odds of [34.0]. Ernie Els and Wayne Westner won this event by a mind boggling 18 shots for South Africa back in 1996. I am going to go out there and confidently predict that record won’t be beaten this week!
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